NL Preview: Not My Year, But Probably My Brother's

The 2008 baseball season started early this morning with a whimper. Will professional sports stop playing regular season games overseas, especially the opening games of the baseball season. In case you weren't aware, the two games in Japan will in fact count as Oakland home games, not Boston. When talking about the National League, it is important to remember how vastly inferior this league is to the American League. I say this as a long time NL guy. It is difficult to envision a scenario where any NL team is competitive with any AL team in the World Series, but let us not forget how absolutely wonderful the 2006 season was when many thought the same thing (see here, in case you forgot). What is going to be particularly troubling about this year in the NL is how my beloved Cardinals are not going to be too competitive, even in the worst division in the history of professional sports. A lack of decent starting pitching (at least until June), guys who can hit more than five home runs, and no speed to speak of is not a recipe for success. The biggest story in the offseason in the NL was the New York Mets acquisition of Johan Santana. This team already had solid starting pitching and Santana replacing Glavine seems like a pretty good upgrade for the Mets. With that being said, here is the latest installment of picks that are sure to be wrong:

NL East
1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

The Mets are the class of the NL. They will win this division by at least 10 games. The Phillies backed into the playoffs last year when the Mets imploded in the final weeks of the season. It has been argued by some that one player cannot make the difference. This might be true in certain cases, A-Rod could not make the difference on bad Texas Rangers teams. But with the Mets and the acquisition of Johan Santana you have a team that lost the division by one game to a team that was not that good. I will go out on a limb and say that Johan adds at least two wins to the Mets win total of a year ago. The Braves and Phillies will compete for the Wild Card. The Braves have the edge here because of a better pitching staff. Their offense will be an unknown until we get to see it in action. I like giving Yunel Escobar a chance at shortstop with the league's best hitting catcher, Mark Texeira, and the league's most underrated player from last year, Chipper Jones (.337/29/102). The Phillies will score but not pitch well. The Nationals will be a non-factor for the near future as they are equipped with a collection of minor league pitchers posing as a big league staff. At least they have a new stadium. The Marlins will compete for the worst record in all of baseball. If the Mets stay healthy (I mean you Pedro), they will not face a team in its class until the World Series. This is more of a testament to how bad the NL is than how good the Mets are.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Cincinatti Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

As mentioned above, this is the worst division in the history of professional sports. The Cubs get the nod here because of their offense and pretty good starting pitching (Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Lieber). This team has serious issues in the bullpen. Any time your closer's first name is Kerry with a last name of Wood, you should be concerned. The Brewers will make the race interesting with what is probably the best lineup in the NL, but pitching is this team's Achilles Heel. Eric Gagne as a closer is never a good sign at this stage of his illegitimate career. The rest of the division will be below .500 by year's end. Houston has a decent lineup with Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee and one good pitcher (Roy Oswalt). Albert Puols will have a great year in a bad lineup. He might get six pitches to hit all year long. This will be a big year in the development of Adam Wainwright who pitched pretty well last year. He is the Obi-Wan Kenobi of this staff until at least June, he is "our only hope." The Reds have Dusty Baker as a manager. I am not sure if that is good or not. Adam Dunn will probably hit a lot of home runs and strike out even more. The Pirates are the odds on favorite to finish with the league's worst record. If they played in the Carolina League's Northern Division I would pick them to finish behind the mighty Wilmington Blue Rocks and the scrappy Potomac Nationals.

NL West
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Francisco Giants

This division contains the most Wild Card hopefuls. The Padres are the second best team in the NL and should win this division comfortably. What amazes me about this division is how one division can possess suck a lack of power. These teams have had this same issue over the last five years and done little to address it. The Dodgers have a good staff that could get better if Schmidty can get it together and stay healthy for more than a minute. The lineup lacks pop, but the addition of Andruw Jones should help. He needs to hit for a much higher average if this team is going to make the playoffs. Nomar is already out, so get ready. The Rockies got into the playoffs by seemingly winning their last 50 games. They are in the same boat as the Phillies, Letdown City, population 2. The Diamondbacks meteoric rise last year had nothing to do with the team's ability to hit. It is difficult to envision a repeat performance. The Giants begin the post-Barry era with a bad team that will not be competitive.

For all things baseball predictions, go here.