These Guys Might Be #1 Next Season

Yesterday came the expected announcement that the remainder of the UNC starting five will be returning to Chapel Hill next season. It is not clear if anyone thought that Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green would actually go in the first round (Lawson had a shot, but late) of the NBA Draft, but personally, I am glad no one convinced them that they would. These three will reunite with the country's best player, Tyler Hansbrough, Marcus Ginyard, and Deon Thompson to form the most talented, experienced team to take to the court in many years. The only key losses to are Alex Stepheson (transferred) and Quentin Thomas (graduated). Besides having another year and deep run in the tournament under their belts, this team will be stronger at point guard with the return of Bobby Frasor. Most forget that Frasor was the starting point guard in his freshman year before the arrival of Lawson and Ellington. He missed almost all of last year with an injury and will more than ably fill the void left by his replacement last season (Thomas). Also, Will Graves will be worth watching coming off the bench, as he seemed to get better with every game last season. Oh yeah, I almost forgot the three top flight freshman who will also be coming along for the ride...

Oh, To Be a Tarheel Fan in the Month of April

UNC and losing in the Final Four go together like Lucky Charms and 2% milk. For the 13th time in 17 chances, UNC has gone to the Final Four and not come away with a national championship. As a fan, this loss was particularly difficult to stomach coming on the heels (no pun intended) of last years' devastating collapse against G'town. Also this particular team, much like the one that preeded it and won it all, is very likable with the likes of the nation's best player, Danny Green Marcus Ginyard, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington. These guys are fun to watch. One can hold out hope that the big three will decide to stay, but this seems unlikely. It is hard to imagine Hansbrough, Lawson, or Ellington amounting to anything more than bench players in the NBA, but this does not usually weigh into the thinking when guys go pro. As for the game, Kansas played 15 of the most perfect basketball a team has ever played in jumping out to 40-12 advantage. Personally, I have never seen such a combination of exceptional shooting and suffocating defense played, even if for a short period of time. UNC roared back but ran out of energy late. Another Final Four, another loss. In the other semifinal, Memphis pulled a mild upset in defeating the UCLA, thus three consecutive trips to the Final Four and no championship for the Bruins. Tonight's game should be fantastic, but the semifinal games were supposed to be fantastic and we see how they ended up. With that, I make my final projection and if it's like my others, it will probably be wrong.

My final projection-Kansas over Memphis

"My" Blue Heaven

It was a great weekend for anyone in the chalk business, as the tournament's four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. This sets-up what could be the best semifinal in sports history. UNC handled a feisty bunch of Cardinals from Louisville through the play of the country's best player, Tyler Hansbrough. His 28 and 13 single-handedly eliminated Rick Pitino. His ability to consistently hit an 18-foot jumper has been somewhat overlooked this season, but all have taken notice after he knocked down one after another on Saturday. This is the 17th trip to the Final Four for UNC, second to only UCLA's 18. The Bruins were impressive in dismantling an overachieving Xavier. Kevin Love continues to impress and a dream match-up of UNC-UCLA seems like a real possibility at this point. Memphis continues to advance, despite their poor free throw shooting. It will be interesting to see if this catches up with them against UCLA. Kansas squeaked out a win against the Davidson Stephen Currys. One thing is certain, that guy can shoot, but he needs someone else to create space for him. If all four top seeds were going to advance, this would be the year, as I have consistently pointed out here, there is a chasm between these teams and the rest of the field. My projection today is the same as it was at the end of the regualr season, UNC over UCLA in a great game.

Brook Lopez Is Taller and Better Than You

Stanford's overtime win over Marquette was the best game of the second round, a game that was only topped by the fantastic Western Kentucky-Drake game on Friday in the race for the best game of the weekend. The Cardinal seemed to have a plan in OT, consistently dribbling the ball to the right side, where Brook Lopez established superior post position and scored time after time. A double team might have helped here, but Tome Crean seemed to think that Lopez would eventually start missing. This almost worked, until Lopez's uber-athletic game winner with a few seconds left. Like most younger brothers, Robin is not nearly as good as his older brother, but played well nonetheless with 18 and 9. While the Lopez brothers certainly possess some talent on the basketball court, I would like to think if they took on me and one of my brothers we would be able to exploit them with our quickness and exceptional outside shooting. Sure, these guys are at least a foot taller than each of us, but don't underestimate the influential power of the forearm shiver to one's kidneys. Brook will think twice before he comes back to my block. I am not saying we would blow them out, but I am not sure it would be too close.

In another great game, Butler let me down in OT against Tennessee, which sets the stage for a great game with Louisville next Thursday, who crushed the over-seeded Sooners from Oklahoma. UCLA was less than impressive against Texas A&M, but Kevin Love demonstrated why he is sensational with two great shots in the game's waning moments. Memphis advanced despite the fact that they cannot shoot free throws. I don't care what Calipari says, this team does not make them when the game is on the line. The Shaq defense does not play here. I had mentioned Duke was about to lose in an earlier post, but it feels great to say again that Coach K will not make it to the second week of the tournament for the second year in a row after losing to West Virginia. I have to agree with experts who say that WVU will advance to the Elite Eight (see here). UNC demonstrated that it is the best college basketball team on the planet by annihilating a bad Arkansas team. I must offer a correction to a previous post where I said that everyone on UNC's roster scored in Friday's rout of Mount St. Mary's. In fact, only 15 of the team's 16 members scored. It is worth noting that Marc Campbell (the 1 of 16 who didn't score) managed a hit a three late on Sunday so that everyone on the roster scored in the tournament's first weekend. The weekend's biggest shock came when the Davidson Stephen Currys beat Georgetown, despite trailing by 17 in the second half. The only thought that comes to mind is Stephen Curry is good.

Cinderella Lives

After seemingly ignoring day one, Cinderella reared her ugly head on Friday, launching an all-out war against brackets everywhere. Western Kentucky beat the overrated Drake Bulldogs in overtime in the game of the year. In the second round, WKU will not meet Connecticut, but the San Diego Toreros (if your not smart like me, you need someone to explain to you that a torero is a bullfighter), who also won in overtime. If that was not enough for you, Sienna took out a Vanderbilt team that is not that good. Vandy seemed to peak when they beat Tennessee in UT's debut as the #1 team in the country. As predicted here, Villanova beat Clemson. This upset is not quite as sexy as the others. Regarding my other upset predictions, St. Mary's proved they should not have been in the Top 25 for most of the season and Stephen Curry proved he is the most exciting player in the tournament with 40 in an "upset" win over Gonzaga. So, 2 for 3 on the day and 3 for 6 in the opening round, that kind of winning percentage would get me the seventh seed in the NBA's Eastern Conference. UNC answered UCLA's challenge by taking it to poor Mount St. Mary's. Everyone on UNC's roster scored in the blowout.

My bracket is laden with chalk for the weekend. My one big pick is Butler over Tennessee tomorrow. Hopefully, UT will come out lethargic like they did against American. Duke is currently handing West Virginia its ticket to the Sweet 16. The theory seems to be just keep throwing up thee-pointers, they will eventually fall. They haven't. If I was going to lose an Elite Eight team, I would rather it be the super annoying Blue Devils.

Day One Dud

The first day of the tournament has come and gone with a wimper. It was a very good day for anyone in the chalk business. The only exciting part of the day was the annoying Blue Devils' near lose to Belmont. It was not a difficult decision when it came to choosing between pulling for Duke to lose or pulling for my bracket (I inexplicably have Duke in the Elite Eight), not pulling for Duke to lose is not allowed in my house. It is not clear why Belmont decided to stop playing defense while Gerald Henderson drove right down the middle of the court to hit the game winning lay-up. I guess sometimes evil does triumph over good. As for my three "upset" picks, I was 1 for 3 (a rare good day if you are hitting lead-off for the L.A. Dodgers). Michael Beasley won the day with 23 and 11 to O.J. Mayo's 20 and 5 assists. This was probably the last we will see of Mayo at the college level, despite recent reports to the contrary. West Virginia continues to be the most annoying team not named Duke. I thought their stock might fall in this category without Mike Gansey's oversized t-shirts and Kevin Pittsnogle, but I was wrong. Bayless was nowhere to be found in his game, thus why they lost. It is inexplicable why this team is not better. I would like to take this opportunity to remind the Baylor Bears that it is common courtesy to call if you are not going to show up for work. I have a strict policy when it comes to no-call/no-shows, basically I won't pick you.

As for today's games, CBS has done a good job of putting most of the day's most intriguing matchups on at the same time (Davidson-Gonzaga, Miami-St. Mary's, Drake-Western Kentucky all tip-off in the first session). Regarding "upsets," this is what I have today:

--Davidson over Gonzaga-If Curry scores more than 25 points, Davidson will win. Davidson played as impressive an out-of conference schedule as any team in the country. Their six losses include losing to UNC by four, Duke by six, UCLA by eight, and N.C. State by one. This is a dangerous team.
--St. Mary's over Miami-These team's could just as easily have their seeding reversed. Neither team is really that impressive, thus there is no real analysis behind this pick.
--Villanova over Clemson-There is always a 12 that beats a 5 and Clemson seems ripe for the picking here. While Clemson played well in the ACC tournament, this team is not a legitimate #5 seed. Look for Scottie Reynolds to shoot this team into the second round.

UNC needs to win big to answer UCLA's challenge.

Countdown to the Madness: T-minus 51 Minutes and Counting...

There not a more nerve-wracking time than the final hour before the start of the tournament. Should I really have Memphis going that far? Is Baylor really capable of reaching the Sweet Sixteen? O.J. Mayo or Michael Beasley? I have disciplined myself to not look at my bracket and make sudden changes right before the 12:20 tip-off of Georgia-Xavier. I had a hard time finding the upsets in this draw and Cinderella seems to be going the way of Sleeping Beauty, resting peacefully, maybe her prince will come this time next year. There is one game most people want to see and that is UNC-UCLA. Most of the time our collective wishes do not come true, but 2005 serves as an example that it can happen (UNC over Illinois). There are a few "upsets" that I see, which are:

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--Baylor over Purdue-I cannot claim to know a whole lot about either team, but Baylor was among the top echelon of the Big 12 for the first half of the year before sputtering at the end and Purdue seemed to overachieve by all standards. I like the Baylor story, seemingly rising from the dead to make the tournament.

--Kansas State over USC-Mayo v. Beasley. Mayo has not enjoyed as much attention as some of the other hyped freshmen, but he has been fantastic this season. Beasley will secure his position as the #1 overall pick with a big showing on the big stage. I am not sure this is really an upset.

--Arizona over West Virginia-This really is a coin-flip game. Arizona should be better than they played this year, but I like them here for one reason-Jerryd Bayliss. If Mayo is not getting as much press this guy is getting none. When it comes to freshman guards, he might be the best of the bunch.

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It is almost time to settle in for the best 12 hours on the sports schedule...

And Then There Were 64...Finally

In what has to be the stupidest sporting event on the calendar, Mount St. Mary's defeated Coppin St. in the NCAA Opening Round last night. The NCAA does not like calling this affair a play-in game, despite the fact that it is a play-in game. The team that loses is not in the tournament (Coppin State), thus the winner (Mount St. Mary's) is in the tournament. I am all for leaving St. Joseph's or Villanova out so that both Coppin State and Mount St.Mary's can both enjoy the experience of being slaughtered in the first round. The NCAA expanded the field in 2001 so that they did not have to reduce the number of at-large teams when bids were needed for both the MWC and WAC. Would it really be a tragedy if that eighth team from the Big East didn't get in? There are plenty of calls to expand the field to 80, 96, and even 128, which defies logic in my mind. The NCAA tounrnament is the perfect sporting event and there is no need to tinker any further. Now that we have the required even number of teams with Mount St. Mary's being sent to Raleigh to meet the Tar Heels, the madness can officially commence...

Countdown to the Madness:The Selection Committee Gets It Right

The final weekend before the start of the world's greatest sporting event never disappoints. Georgia made an improbable run to win the SEC, doubling their number of SEC wins in a span of four days to steal a bid from the Daytons and Virginia Techs of the college basketball world. Pittsburgh surprised G'town in the Big East final on Saturday night. UCLA won an exciting PAC 10 final against a tall Stanford team (don't sleep on Brook Lopez at the next level). Wisconsin won the Big 10 in a game that no one had any interest in watching. And most importantly, UNC retook the record for most ACC tournament championships from the ultra annoying Duke Blue Devils, winning its 17th such title over the scrappy Tigers from Clemson. As for the tournament, the committee did a solid job in selecting which teams should and should not be in. The number one seeds were exactly what I have been advocating here for several weeks. There are four great teams (UNC, UCLA, Kansas, and Memphis) and there is everyone else (Texas should a 4a on this list). Normally there are those three or four teams who's being left out of the field leads to universal scorn and admonition of the process, but not this year. The only selection really quibbled over is Arizona in over Arizona State. Who cares you might ask? Not me. The seeding is always tricky, it is not clear why Tennessee is the #2 seed in the East with UNC, as the Tar Heels are the #1 overall seed and Tennessee had to be the highest rated #2. Even more puzzling, how is Butler a seven seed? They ended the year #10 and were consistently in the top 15 all year. Also, if the script plays out as it is supposed to, they would have to play Tennessee in the second round. This was an odd decision to say the least. The final pre-tournament Top 5 is:

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1. UNC

2. UCLA

3. Kansas

4. Memphis

5. Texas

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I have mixed reviews of the addition of Bob Knight to the ESPN crew. Few can provide as much insight into men's college basketball than Knight, but at times it is clear that his fellow analyst are attempting to goad him into saying something controversial. His idea to expand the field to 128 teams is ridiculous, which was only rivaled by his Pittsburgh to win-it-all pick. For expert analysis go here.

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My current projection-UNC over UCLA

Countdown to the Madness: The Tarheels are coming, the Tarheels are coming!!!

Nothing is more rewarding in all of regular season sports than a UNC victory over the super annoying Blue Devils from Durham. UNC beat Duke on Saturday, thus clinching its 26th ACC regular season crown (Duke is second with 18) and securing the #1 seed in this week's ACC tournament. With Lawson healthy, the Tarheels will be the prohibitive favorite heading into both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. The tournament commences one week from today in the pointless play-in (or opening round) game in Dayton. The winner of that game will be the sacrificial lamb for either UNC or UCLA. Conference tournaments are all the buzz this week, as Sienna is in, Drake is poised to potentially play spoiler, George Mason returns with a target on its back, and San Diego's win over Gonzaga has fans in Syracuse and Gainesville somewhat uneasy about their position on the bubble. These conference tournaments will play a big role in seeding those teams not in the Top 5 and getting bubble teams in and out of the tournament. The Big East provides the best example of this, as the loser of tomorrow's Syracuse-Villanova game is undoubtedly out, West Virginia is probably in but would benefit from beating Providence, and Pittsburgh could use another win. This tournament is wide open with any of the conference's top six teams possessing the capacity to win in MSG. This week's Top 5 is:

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1. UNC

2. UCLA

3. Kansas

4. Memphis

5. Tennessee

My current projection-UNC over UCLA

Countdown to the Madness: Channeling Harold Arcineaux

Two weeks from today the NCAA tournament kicks off in Dayton, Ohio. Teams seem to be regaining focus with conference tournaments right around the corner and the incessant debates about seeding and snubs (for exceptional analysis of tournament seeding, look here) begining in earnest. UNC regained the top spot in the polls in spite of the the efforts of BC's Tyrese Rice. In my lifetime there are two college basketball moments that really stand out vividly in my mind, one good and one so very, very bad. The 1993 Championship game provided the apex of joy, the sharpshooting of Donal Williams and the infamous Chris Webber timeout brought an end to a long 11-year hiatus for championships in Chapel Hill and the beloved Coach Smith. The Tar Heels 1999 first round loss to the mighty Wildcats of Weber State (of Big Sky fame) was the single worst sporting event I have ever suffered through. Harold Arcineaux palyed the role of the assassin that crushed the hopes of the #3 seeded Tar Heels. Scoring 36 of his team's 76 points, Arcineaux provided the most impressive display of shooting I have ever seen, until Saturday. Tyrese Rice scored 23 points in the game's six minutes (hitting his first six three-point attempts) before ending the half with 34 points (8-10 from behind the arc) and his team up by 15. Fortunately, Rice is the only somewhat competent player on that roster and UNC was able to come from behind and win comfortably. But for 20 minutes, Tyrese Rice was Harold Arcineaux.

The return of Lawson makes the Tar Heels an even more formidable team heading into tournament season, but UNC needs to dispose of the ultra-irritating Blue Devils on Saturday to clinch the ACC's regular season title and top seed in the tournament. Kansas continues to win, UCLA is healthy and starting to hit a good stride of their own, and Memphis continues to beat subpar opponents. Texas suffered a bad loss to Texas Tech, which ends their chances at a #1 seed. Tennessee struggled with a bad Kentucky team after losing earlier in the week to Vandy, who subsequently lost to Arkansas. And Indiana decided to not show up for its game with Michigan State on Sunday. This was also a bad week for many of the top mid-major schools that most love to hate with Drake, Saint Mary's, and Kent State all losing. This week's Top 5 is:

1. UNC
2. Kansas
3. UCLA
4. Memphis
5. Tennessee

One would have a hard time convincing me that the top four teams listed above are not going to the Final Four, as there is a chasm between these teams and the rest of the field. Of these four, Memphis is most vulnerable because of an overall lack of tough competition leading into the tournament (paging St. Joe's) and its poor, poor, poor team free throw shooting.

My current projection: UNC over Kansas

Countdown to the Madness: I apologize to Isiah Thomas

With only 22 days until the tournament, the mighty Volunteers of Tennessee are the #1 team in the country. I can honestly say that I would have never thought this team could be on top of the polls at any point of the season, nonetheless in the final weeks of a tough SEC schedule. This is a well-deserved honor following a great win over Memphis on Saturday. The fact that future All-American Chris Lofton turned in a terrible performance (7 points on 2-11 shooting) makes this win all that more impressive. It is hard to believe this team will win out with a surprisingly tough Vandy, a resurgent Kentucky, and a young Florida team coming up over the next 8 days. A loss to Vandy tonight seems to be in this team's future. This was a tough week to be in the Top 25, as many teams fell. Duke lost again, this time to the overperforming Miami Hurricanes. The Jayhawks lost a typical tough Big 12 game to OSU. Butler lost a great game to Drake in a battle for mid-major supremacy (Drake lost earlier in the week to Bradley). UCONN finally lost another game (Villanova). An overrated Purdue team lost to underrated Indiana (how this team responds to the Kelivin Sampson situation will be telling, a narrow win over Northwestern is not promising). This is typical for this time of year, as teams start to wear down a bit and look forward to conference tournaments and the Big Dance. Now for this week's Top 5:

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1. UNC

2. Memphis

3. Tennessee

4. Kansas

5. Texas

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UNC seems to be hitting its stride without Lawson. Central to this is QT's play at the point. I had recently said that watching him play made me sick, which it did, but he has improved immensley over the last three weeks. He has averaged 7.5 points and 6.5 assists over the last seven games (UNC is 6-1 in that stretch). While I can't forget his terrible play up to this point, I am willing to apologize to to his star father for questioning his son's abilities. Isiah, I am sorry. Memphis and Tennessee cannot shoot free throws, which will come into play late in the tournament. Kansas needs to establish a go-to guy and Texas has the best guards in the country. The number of teams to watch seems to shrink as the season progresses, but UCLA, when healthy, will be tough coming out of the west, Indiana (Gordon on the big stage like Carmelo Anthony in 2003?), Georgetown (can defense win the day?), and Butler (still the best mid-major team) could play a role late in the tournament.

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My current projection-UNC over Kansas

Countdown to the Madness: 29 Days and Counting

With only 29 days remaining until the best four days on the sports calendar, some of the top teams are starting crack, which is common this time of year. Duke fell to an inferior Wake Forest squad, Kansas lost a tough game to an underrated Texas team, Stanford lost to ASU in OT, and Georgetown got dominated by Syracuse. Even Memphis struggled with the mighty Blazers of UAB on Saturday, winning in the game's final seconds. This has been a resurgent year for two conferences that have been down--the PAC 10 and Big 12. The PAC 10 is easily the toughest conference and will probably get seven teams in (which ever team finishes at .500 or better between Cal, Oregon, and Washington will make seven). The Big 12 is remarkably competetive and the resurgence at Baylor after probation is nothing short of amazing. To me, the conference that I have overlooked the most is the Big East. There is not a single team in this conference that anyone would think could advance past the Sweet 16 at this point in the season, but is deep in potential tournament teams. Currently, this behemoth conference has 10 potential NCAA teams (Villanova is a longshot, but is within two games of .500 in conference play). It is difficult to take this conference too seriously because of its size, it really is two conferences, but it is easily the second best conference after the PAC 10.

The Top 5 teams as of right now:

1. Memphis

2. UNC

3. Kansas

4. Tennessee

5. UCLA

Others teams worth watching include Texas, Butler, Duke, and Stanford. Two great games on Saturday: Drake at Butler and the potential game of the year, Tennessee at Memphis.

My projection: UNC over Kansas

March Madness Countdown: 53 In a Row for the Boys in Blue

Last night UNC extended its all-time record in Chapel Hill against Clemson to an unbelievable 53-o. This seems improbable based on the highly competitive nature of basketball historically played in the ACC. One would assume that at some point over the past 53 years that Clemson would have won once, but that is not the case. To the Tigers credit they have come close twice this season to beating the Tar Heels, relinquishing a 15-point lead last night before falling in double OT and losing in OT at Littlejohn Coliseum in January on a Wayne Ellington three-pointer at the buzzer. Despite a tough lose to the uber-annoying Blue Devils earlier in the week, it is important to remember that UNC is currently playing without its top two point guards, which means QT is getting extended playing time. Quentin Thomas is easily the worst point guard to ever start a game at UNC in my lifetime. One gets a sick feeling in the bottom of their stomach watching him consistently turn the ball over and take bad shots. This team is a Final Four team with Lawson and Sweet 16 team without. The country's best player has been nothing short of amazing over the last three games with 39 & 13 against Clemson, 28 & 18 against Duke, and 22 & 21 against FSU. At times it seems that Tyler Hansbrough is the only person in blue playing at full-speed.

With 37 days until the world's greatest sporting event commences, here are the Top 5 teams in the country:

1. Memphis
2. Kansas
3. UNC
4. UCLA
5. Duke

This is an interesting year, but it seems to be top heavy with the above teams, but there is a lot of good guard play across the country, which is the key to a good run in March. Other teams worth watching include Georgetown (great defense but will the real Dr. Hibbert please stand up), Texas (superior guard play that rivals all teams in the top 5), Butler (someone has to be that mid-major team), and Tennessee (arguably the funnest team to watch next to Memphis, who they play on February 23).

My current projection-UNC over UCLA